What a difference a year makes.
No matter what happens next year, 2012 will go down as a banner year for San Clemente residential real estate.
Preliminary information from the California Regional Multiple Listing Service indicates that the local home median sales price will rise about 29% during the year to close at approximately $645,000. The median is where half the homes sold for more and half for less.
This impressive performance (most of which occurred in January, February and March) will end a five-year losing streak that saw the average home price plummet by a third. Some properties lost half their value during the period.
Not only will local home prices rise dramatically during 2012, but the number of resales should skyrocket to almost 1,000 homes, a volume not seen in seven years.
Around the middle of January, different real estate price tracking services will report somewhat different annual numbers for San Clemente. But the theme will be the same: Spectacular.
Why the screaming market? There’s no doubt that fear of expiring government programs at year’s end (the so-called “fiscal cliff”) has boosted recent sales volume. But that doesn’t explain the extraordinary price rises earlier in the year.
Did anyone see this coming?
I make few concrete market predictions, because I have learned that 80 percent of well educated and experienced professional prognostications turn out to be wrong.
Nevertheless, in May of 2011, I wrote: “Sooner: …The San Clemente home real estate market…will remain flat for at least another year…. Later: San Clemente home prices will rise along with inflation over the next ten years.”
So it turns out I was right — about 80 percent of predictions being wrong, that is. The market turnaround came five months earlier than I thought it would. I should’ve known: The local real estate market always seems to turn on a dime. By the time you begin to notice it, it’s already happened.
What’s in store for 2013?
I’m already on record with my inflation prediction. I hope we’re in for an average, prolonged real estate bull market. But for that to happen, I think we will need some adults to show up in Washington. Continued divisiveness could cut short this real estate rally.
For the latest San Clemente real estate market trends, visit mcotter.com.